Tariffs could add pressure to Virginia's trade heavy economy

By Shirleen Guerra | The Center Square

(The Center Square) – Tariffs aren't usually the kind of thing that makes Virginia business owners nervous, but more than half of Northern Virginia executives say trade policy is creeping into their worry list.

A Q2 2025 survey of nearly 300 Northern Virginia executives found that 53% expect tariffs to hurt business growth in the next six months, more than those concerned about taxes or regulation.

It puts trade policy in the same stress category as inflation and federal job cuts, which also ranked on the list.

That concern isn't coming out of nowhere as Virginia exported more than $21.8 billion in goods last year,according to figures from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

Nearly 90% of those exports came from small and mid-sized businesses, which often don't have much cushion when costs spike or foreign buyers pull back.

Unlike states that mostly ship raw materials or heavy goods, Virginia leans heavily on service exports such as tech, consulting and logistics. Those exports aren't small potatoes, and in 2022, those services supported more than 222,000 jobs and pumped $2.2 billion into commonwealth and local tax coffers.

Survey responses suggest the impact isn't just theoretical, as some Virginia businesses say they already feel it. Roughly 40% of executives said that the current U.S. trade policy is already causing their companies to decline, while another 36% expect trouble.

So far, tariffs haven't played a major role in Virginia's governor's race. Meanwhile, Republican nominee Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears hasn't released a formal position on trade policy or tariffs. However, in a leaked March recording, she expressed support for the president's trade approach, calling tariffs good and to our benefit.

Democratic governor candidate Abigail Spanberger has sharply criticized Trump-era tariffs, calling them a"tax on Virginians" that will hit families, farmers and small businesses hardest.

Dominion Energy is also watching tariffs closely.

In a May 1 earnings call, executives estimated the company could face up to $500 million in cumulative tariff-related costs if the current policy holds through 2026.

During the call, the leading provider disclosed they had already absorbed $4 million in tariff costs during the first quarter of 2025 and expects that number to jump to $130 million by the end of June.

If nothing changes, executives say tariffs could tack on half a billion dollars to the cost of building Virginia's offshore wind project.